Chen Xie
Ph.D Candidate
Job Market Candidate, 2024-25
Economics
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References: Paul J. Pieper, George Karras, Ben Ost
Job Market Paper: Leadership, Gender, and Discourse in Monetary Policy: Analyzing Speech Dynamics in the FOMC
Abstract: Using a novel hand-collected dataset, this paper employs natural language processing and a quasi-experimental approach to investigate the determinants of speech share among members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). First, given the novelty of the data, I describe key correlations between speech share and FOMC members’ gender, education, and tenure status. The second section of the paper uses a difference-in-differences approach to examine whether the appointment of Chair Janet Yellen affected the gender gap in FOMC speech shares. I find that the baseline gender gap of 1.2 percentage points narrows to 0.4 percentage points as a result of Yellen’s appointment. Additionally, I find that the expression of opinions in FOMC members’ speeches dropped by 7.7 percentage points overall, with female members decreasing by an additional 2.5 percentage points. Despite these changes in discourse style, a significant relationship persists between opinion shares and deviations from the Taylor Rule-implied policy rate, with female members responding more strongly than their male counterparts. This study provides new insights into how leadership and gender influence the internal dynamics of monetary policy discussions within the FOMC.